The 2016-17 Harvest estimate proved wrong because the weather forecast was wrong. After a hot spring and a fruit fly epidemic that had lowered estimates for quantities and quality across the Mediterranean producers, came a cold winter which is still affecting the late harvest currently under way. Spain is down 15% with dubious quality, Italy at 190,000 tons, down from its average of 500,000 tons, Greece at 160,000 tons,  down from its average of 300,000 tons and even Tunisia at 90,000 tons, down from its peak of 200,000 tons. Consequently, prices at auction in Spain are at their highest level since 2010, jumped 50 % in Greece since last year and remain highest in Italy, which is experiencing its 3rd consecutive bad harvest, due to insufficient quantities to satisfy even a fraction of its domestic demand (I wonder whose oil their exporting?)

 

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-09/olive-oil-prices-surging-after-bad-weather-in-italy-spain-and-greece